Barclays considers stopping its agricultural speculation

In response to growing public pressure against excessive speculation in food and energy markets, Barclays is considering stopping all of its trading in agricultural products due to “potential reputational damage.” Barclays would join a growing number of European banks and pension funds who have recently stopped trading in agriculture futures due to growing concern that this speculation is driving world food prices higher and making them more volatile.

More recently, investors are pulling out of [Read More...]

Proven model predicts higher food prices if speculation is not reined in

The New England Complex Systems Institute, that has developed a quantitative model able to very closely predicted the FAO’s food price index, released a new report predicting sharply higher food prices due in part to excessive speculation.

Their model, originally released in September 2011 matched the FAO’s index from 2004 to 2011. Since then it has continued to closely follow the real world numbers.

Unfortunately, the model now predicts, “another speculative bubble starting by the [Read More...]

Barclays admits that speculation influences prices

In its February 2012 report on commodity investments, Barclays admitted that an increase in commodity speculation leads to increased prices. The report lists three main causes of the current run-up in commodity prices, stating,

“The second key driver is that commodity investors have begun allocating to commodities again after beginning 2012 heavily underexposed to the sector.”

The report goes on to explain that “net long hedge fund positions across all U.S. commodity futures markets have [Read More...]

Financial Reforms are NOT ruining Wall Street

A recent article by New York Magazine’s Gabriel Sherman, entitled, “The End of Wall Street as They Knew It” opines that “public anger and new regulations” signify the beginning of the end of opulent Wall Street compensation. Yet the CEOs of the major financial institutions say that the problem is actually the European economy.

Check out Matt Taibbi’s risible “Why Wall Street Should Stop Whining” where he destroys the myths laid out in Sherman’s article.

A Thanksgiving Rhyme

Here’s a thoughtful Thanksgiving rhyme from a colleague at Better Markets:

This year as we approach Thanksgiving,
Let’s think about how banks make livings,

And as we dab at gravy stains,
Take pause at all ill-gotten gains;

For quite against the festive mood,
The banks are bidding up our food,

And through excessive speculation
Are placing ransoms on our nation;

For only some few years ago,
Commodities were fairly stable,

But [Read More...]

Help prevent another financial meltdown – take action today

Your action is required to help avoid another financial crash. We received very bad news on November 15 when the House-Senate conference committee released its proposed budget for 2012; unfortunately it does not include the needed increase in funding for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency that manages derivatives markets, the central cause of the financial meltdown.

Without an increase in funding, The CFTC will not be able to enforce the financial reforms [Read More...]

CFTC nears decision on speculation limits, Wall Street pulls out all stops to weaken laws

With more deadlines approaching for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), its internal drama made public by the so-called “whistleblowers,” and Bernie Sanders’ op-ed calling on regulators to “stop thumb[ing their] noses” and to get serious about getting rules written and regulations in place, the commodity speculation debate has heated up over the past week.

On Wednesday, Reuters broke a story about in-house conflict at the CFTC particularly over the “position limits” rule, which in [Read More...]

High food prices lead to riots

Researchers at the New England Complex Systems Institute recently released a report titled, “The Food Crisis and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East,” in which they show that, while there are a number of causes of political unrest and turmoil, the price of food seems to be the most relevant factor.

The report is perhaps best summed up in this revealing graph:

… all the more reason to [Read More...]

Bart Chilton explains situation of commodity markets

Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently gave an excellent 4-part interview with Real News.

In the first part, Chilton explains the problem of over-the-counter (OTC), or “dark markets” – so named because of their lack of transparency. He also explains the problem with what he calls “massive passives” (pension funds laying down huge, long-term bets on commodity prices) and “cheetahs” (high frequency traders) and their effects [Read More...]

Study shows 83 cents of each gallon of gas is from excessive speculation

Two professors from the University of Massachusetts Amherst released a study yesterday in which they estimate that in the month of May, 83 cents of the price of a gallon of gas in the United States was due to excessive speculation. “Considering the U.S. economy as a whole, this translates into a speculative premium of over $1 billion for May alone,” wrote co-authors Robert Pollin and James Heintz.

The co-authors say that their estimate is [Read More...]